The Future of the Internet, According to Pew

Lee Rainie at the podium

Last night I attended a very interesting discussion on where the Internet is going. Lee Rainie, Director of the Pew Internet and American Life Project, presented the findings of the “Future of the Internet IV” survey at the meeting room of the American Institute of Architects across from the Old Executive Building  (nice digs, BTW).  Local new media and tech guru Hank Dearden, founder of Capital Cabal put the presentation together — thanks again Hank, good event!

Lee laid out to the crowd of about 100 what he saw as the main findings. Then there was a short panel discussion, moderated by Kim Hart from the Hill Magazine and featuring Mark Walsh of Genius Rocket and Alec Ross, Senior Advisor on Innovation to Hillary Clinton.

Lee led with some humor, asking the crowd not to “tweckle” him (deride his preso via Twitter) if they didn’t agree with any of the findings. Pew uses an interesting question format they call “Tension Pairs” – they ask their respondents to agree or disagree with one of two strongly worded positions. For example, one of the question pairs asked whether based on today’s applications and services, can we discern what apps and services will look like in 2020? One option said yes we can, the other no we can’t.

The answer there was definitive — 81% of respondents think we have no idea what the “hot” services will look like in 2020. Some other interesting nuggets:

• 46% of Americans used the Internet in 2000 — now 75%, and 93% of teens
• 5% had broadband at home in 2000, 62% today
• Researchers thought four years ago that the “Internet of Things” would require RFID — now that’s happening via applications and location-based services
• Processing speeds and miniaturization continues to accelerate
• “cognitive capabilities” are shifting — Google is not making us stupid, but is changing how we think
• Reputation management will continue to rise and be something almost everyone needs to do
• Online anonymity — roughly split as to whether this will still be possible in 10 years
• 63% think the “end to end” principle of the Internet, reaching others without third party interference, will survive. But there was much worry expressed about government and corporate forces that could endanger this principle.

Those are my takeaways — here’s the link off the Pew site if you’d like to review the report for yourself.

I’d describe the discussion afterwards as more interesting than informative. Mark Walsh, who clearly is well practiced at these types of gatherings, started us down a road when he described the Internet as the biggest boon to “lying” in history. He had a lot of interesting anecdotes and examples to share. His broader point was that any data set can be twisted to represent anything you want it to (if you ever meet him, ask him how shoe size and IQ are clearly related – that was my personal favorite).

Too many of the questions from the crowd weren’t at all, they were statements. It was a very DC-centric crowd, and many were clearly upset that the Internet had destroyed the mass media business model and with it any generally accepted neutral arbitrator of news. That is a very important issue with big ramifications, but it’s not a technology issue.

Alec tried to get across how different the Internet experience is in other countries. We’re upset about the decline in the civic watchdog function of the news media, while 31% of the world’s population lives in countries where the Internet is censored. (don’t know the citation of that %, and all the more relevant with today’s news of Yahoo email accounts of foreign journalists being hacked in China and the Vietnamese government stifling dissent online) He also mentioned mobile banking and micro-currency taking off in Africa, and how Internet freedom is a pillar of American foreign policy.

All in all, a fine way to spend a Wednesday night. I hope to see you at the next Cabal event!